StoneX Group: Core Earnings Validate the Platform, but AI Still Needs Proof
RATING: BUY (downgraded from Strong Buy) | TARGET: $69 | PRICE: $57.16 as of October 16, 2026 | UPSIDE: 20.7%
Summary
Fiscal Q3 2026 net operating revenue rose 47% year over year to $719.7 Mn, net income doubled to $127.9 Mn, and split-adjusted diluted EPS of $1.00 beat the available $0.82 to $0.86 consensus range.
The R.J. O’Brien and market-share thesis strengthened, but the software and AI thesis remains only partly proven because StoneX has not disclosed software revenue, recurring revenue, or AI-linked savings.
My base case uses fiscal 2027 EPS of $5.05, a 15x forward P/E, and a 10% discount rate, producing a present target of $69 per share.
I downgrade StoneX from Strong Buy to Buy. The valuation is attractive, but the base-case return is about 21% and the quarter did not yet justify valuing StoneX like a software-led exchange platform.
