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Aura Minerals: Growth Is Working, but the Price Now Demands Proof

Writer: Felix Ouma
Felix Ouma
Sep 21
8 min read

RATING: HOLD (downgraded from Buy)  |  TARGET: US$94  |  PRICE: US$85.96 as of September 16, 2026  |  IMPLIED UPSIDE: 9.3%


Summary

  • Q2 revenue was US$336.0 Mn and adjusted EBITDA was US$196.7 Mn. Both were lower sequentially, but up 76% and 85% year over year, respectively


  • The growth case strengthened: H1 production rose 27% to 157,574 GEO, Borborema remained a low-cost asset, and Era Dorada construction was on schedule.


  • The cost case weakened: MSG produced only 7,186 GEO at US$5,277/GEO AISC and generated negative US$1.1 Mn of adjusted EBITDA in Q2.

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Open-pit mine processing plant with conveyor belts, a large rotary machine, and silver storage tanks under a clear blue sky.
Source: The Northern Miner

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