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The alpha Brief: Insights on Quant Investing and the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)
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HPE Network Led AI Pivot Has Worked but the Stock Has Caught Up
I downgrade HPE from Buy to Hold. The company is executing better than my old thesis, but the current price of $60.76 leaves almost no base-case upside. 3Q FY 2026 revenue reached $12.2Bn, up 34% Y/Y, while non-GAAP EPS of $1.11 beat the $0.93 consensus by $0.18.

Antonia Njeru
1 day ago8 min read


Silicon Motion: A Better Company Than Six Months Ago, But Not a Better Buy
I am downgrading Silicon Motion from a STRONG BUY to HOLD. Execution improved, but the prior valuation discount has disappeared and first-half free cash flow remained negative. Silicon Motion reported record Q2 2026 revenue of $451.0Mn, up 32% sequentially and 127% y/y. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.43 beat the $2.13 consensus by 14%.

Brigette Mwaura
2 days ago9 min read


ExxonMobil: Growth Is Working, But the Price Now Demands Proof
My 2027 model produces $409 Bn of revenue and $11.55 of EPS, slightly above the $11.08 consensus EPS forecast but below the earnings pace implied by unusually supportive Q2 markets.

Felix Ouma
3 days ago8 min read


MaxLinear: AI Ramp Is Real but Valuation Requires Patience
I am downgrading the rating for Maxlinear from a STRONG BUY to a HOLD. The business is executing, but I think that the current valuation offers no base-case margin of safety.Q2 revenue rose 55% y/y to $168.8Mn, while Non-GAAP operating margin reached 22.3% and Q3 revenue guidance rose to $210Mn to $220Mn.

Brigette Mwaura
6 days ago8 min read


Diodes Earnings Recovery Is Real but the Valuation Calls for Patience
I am downgrading Diodes from a STRONG BUY to a HOLD. The operating evidence is better, but the old claim of asymmetric valuation upside no longer survives a disciplined present-value test. Q2 revenue rose 21.7% y/y to $445.5Mn, gross margin reached 33.1%, and adjusted EPS of $0.70 beat the $0.63 consensus by $0.07.

Brigette Mwaura
Sep 298 min read


Arista’s AI Engine Is Stronger but the Valuation Has Caught Up
I downgrade ANET from Strong Buy to Hold. 2Q fy 2026 revenue reached $3.036Bn, up 37.7% year over year and 7.3% above consensus, while non-GAAP EPS of $1.02 beat by $0.13. The business is executing above the previous thesis, but the current $199.39 price leaves little base-case return.

Antonia Njeru
Sep 287 min read


Penguin Solutions: Stronger Earnings Meet a Fuller Valuation
I am downgrading Penguin Solutions from a STRONG BUY to a HOLD. Execution improved, but the rerating from $32.40 to $53.30 absorbed most of the near-term upside. Q3 FY26 net sales reached a record $479Mn and adjusted EPS was $0.84, beating consensus by 13.6% and 50.0%, respectively.

Brigette Mwaura
Sep 258 min read


Chevron: Stronger Earnings, Smaller Margin of Safety
The operating thesis strengthened. Production reached 4.07 Mn boe/d, the company achieved its $3 Bn cost-saving run rate early, and Hess synergies were raised to $1.5 Bn.

Felix Ouma
Sep 248 min read


Aura Minerals: Growth Is Working, but the Price Now Demands Proof
My US$94 present target uses 8.0x 2027E EBITDA and a 10% discount rate. At 9.3% price upside, the risk-adjusted return fits a Hold rather than a Buy.

Felix Ouma
Sep 218 min read


Astec Industries: Backlog Is Strong, But The Margin Story Needs More Proof
I am downgrading Astec from a BUY to HOLD. Astec Industries reported Q2 2026 sales of $408.1Mn, up 23.6%, and adjusted EBITDA of $42.6Mn, up 26.0%. Adjusted EPS of $0.94 missed the $1.04 consensus estimate.

Brigette Mwaura
Sep 197 min read


Kodiak Gas Services: The Earnings Improved, but the Price Already Knows
Q2 revenue rose 21.1% to $391.1 Mn and adjusted EBITDA rose 21.7% to a record $216.8 Mn. Revenue beat consensus, but adjusted EPS of $0.55 missed the $0.67 estimate.

Felix Ouma
Sep 189 min read


KARO: The Growth Story Is Intact, the Discount Is Not
I am downgrading KARO from BUY to HOLD. It's execution is better, but I believe that the former valuation discount has largely disappeared and Q1 cash conversion needs watching.

Brigette Mwaura
Sep 168 min read


GE Vernova's Backlog Is Stronger,But Valuation Keeps Me at Hold
I downgrade GE Vernova from Buy to Hold because stronger execution is now balanced by a demanding valuation and unusually working-capital-heavy cash flow.

Felix Ouma
Sep 158 min read


Dell: The AI Thesis Won, But The Easy Upside Is Gone
Dell's Q2 FY2027 revenue reached $47.0 Bn and non-GAAP EPS reached $7.04, beating pre-quarter consensus by about 4% and 43%, respectively.

Antonia Njeru
Sep 107 min read


Marvell Technology: AI Momentum Strengthens, but the Stock Looks Fully Valued
Marvell delivered Q2 FY2027 revenue of $2.739 Bn, up 37% y/y and 13% q/q. Non-GAAP EPS reached $0.94, while data center revenue rose 46% y/y to $2.172 Bn

Felix Ouma
Sep 99 min read


RTX: Better Earnings, But Not Enough Upside
I am downgrading RTX from STRONG BUY to HOLD. I like the company more after earnings, but I do not see enough valuation support to keep the old rating.The downgrade is not a verdict against the business. In fact, Q1 and Q2 strengthened almost every operating pillar in the original thesis. The problem is expected return.

Brigette Mwaura
Sep 88 min read


Par Pacific: The Earnings Power Is Real, but the Easy Upside Is Gone
Par Pacific delivered $2.97 Bn of revenue, $571.3 Mn of adjusted EBITDA, and $10.10 of adjusted EPS in Q2 2026. Revenue and EPS beat the public consensus figures of $2.40 Bn and $8.22, respectively.

Felix Ouma
Sep 49 min read
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