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Sandisk: The Bull Case Worked, Now What?

Writer: Brigette Mwaura
Brigette Mwaura
1 day ago
8 min read

Summary

  • I am downgrading Sandisk from a STRONG BUY to a HOLD. The business is stronger, but I think that 9% base-case upside at $1,605 is not enough for a BUY given NAND pricing and peak-margin risk. Sandisk reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $8.97Bn and Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, both above consensus, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 84.6%. 


  • The AI storage thesis strengthened. Datacenter revenue doubled sequentially, eight long-term customer agreements now cover more than half of FY2027 bits, and the balance sheet ended the year with no funded debt. 


  • My FY2027 model produces $48.9Bn of revenue and $213 of Non-GAAP EPS. Applying 9.0x and discounting the July 2027 value back at 12% gives a present target of about $1,750.

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SanDisk SN670 Enterprise NVMe SSD angled on black background with red, white, and pink pixel blocks.
UltraQLC™ architecture introduces a new approach to enterprise QLC—designed to address the growing demands of AI-driven data centers. Source: Sandisk

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