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NextEra Energy Earnings Strengthen the Story but Not the Upside

Writer: Brigette Mwaura
Brigette Mwaura
2 days ago
9 min read

Updated: 5 hours ago

Summary

  • I am downgrading NEE from the original STRONG BUY rating to a HOLD. The business is executing, but the base case offers only 6.6% price upside and roughly 9.8% total return including the current dividend yield. Q2 adjusted EPS rose 9.5% to $1.15 and beat the $1.11 consensus, while revenue increased 12.4% to $7.53Bn but missed the $8.11Bn consensus. 


  • The operating thesis strengthened. Energy Resources backlog reached 35.1 GW, FPL advanced large-load discussions increased to 12 GW, and the potential hub pipeline rose to 30. 


  • My base case values 2027 adjusted EPS of $4.39 at 20.0x, then discounts the $87.80 future value at 6% to a present target of $83.

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Aerial view of a solar farm with rows of blue panels and NEXtera ENERGY logo overlaid, suggesting clean energy.
Source:Nextera Energy.

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