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ExxonMobil: Growth Is Working, But the Price Now Demands Proof

Writer: Felix Ouma
Felix Ouma
12 hours ago
8 min read

RATING: HOLD (downgraded from Buy)  |  TARGET: $162  |  PRICE: $160.59 as of September 25, 2026  |  PRICE UPSIDE: 0.9%


Summary

  • Q2 adjusted earnings reached $14.7 Bn, adjusted EPS was $3.52, operating cash flow was $23.6 Bn, and free cash flow was $17.2 Bn.


  • Execution strengthened the operating thesis: Permian production exceeded 1.8 MMboed, the fifth Guyana FPSO remained on track for Q4 2026, and structural savings reached $16.3 Bn.


  • My 2027 model produces $409 Bn of revenue and $11.55 of EPS, slightly above the $11.08 consensus EPS forecast but below the earnings pace implied by unusually supportive Q2 markets.

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ExxonMobil Billings Refinery sign in front of smoky industrial towers and pipes at a large refinery complex.
Source: Fox Business

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