The alpha Brief: Insights on Quant Investing and the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)

I am retaining my Strong Buy rating on Phillips 66 following its second-quarter 2026 results. In my previous analysis, I argued that better refining execution, a growing Midstream business and disciplined capital allocation were making Phillips 66 less dependent on favorable refining cycles. Q2 strengthens that thesis because those structural improvements are now meeting an exceptionally supportive refining environment.

Par Pacific delivered $2.97 Bn of revenue, $571.3 Mn of adjusted EBITDA, and $10.10 of adjusted EPS in Q2 2026. Revenue and EPS beat the public consensus figures of $2.40 Bn and $8.22, respectively.

Q2 Adjusted Earnings reached $9.8 Bn, Adjusted EBITDA was $20.7 Bn, and CFFO reached $21.4 Bn. Free cash flow was $17.5 Bn, helping net debt fall from $52.6 Bn in Q1 to $41.8 Bn and gearing decline to 18.7%.

The biggest question is no longer whether the refining thesis has worked, but how long it can last. Distillate inventories, crack spreads and refinery utilization will be critical indicators as we decide whether to maintain exposure or become more defensive.

I am retaining my Strong Buy rating on PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF) following its second quarter 2026 results. My previous thesis depended heavily on the Martinez refinery returning to full operation, better West Coast refining conditions and measurable savings from the Refinery Business Improvement program. Martinez is now fully operational, refining conditions have strengthened considerably, and the cost program continues to deliver.

Our preferred opportunities combine proven execution with different stages of upside potential. Some of our earlier investment ideas have already delivered substantial returns, while others remain closer to their original publication levels despite meaningful improvements in underlying fundamentals.

I rate Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PARR) a Buy because I believe the market is undervaluing a high-quality downstream energy company with a unique combination of refining, logistics, retail, and renewable fuels assets. Unlike many independent refiners, Par Pacific has built an integrated platform that generates cash flow across multiple business segments while benefiting from geographically advantaged markets in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies.

I am rating JinkoSolar a Strong Buy because it is the undisputed global leader in solar module shipments, trading at a deeply depressed valuation that prices in permanent earnings impairment rather than a cyclical trough followed by a structural recovery.

This company is strategically positioned in the growing clean energy sector and its has a capability to address electricity demand constraints with its distributed, on-site energy systems that offer reliable, grid-independent power.

ExxonMobil achieved stronger core results in the first quarter of 2026, despite disruptions in the Middle East, demonstrating the business's resilience in challenging conditions. As reported in the 1Q 2026 Earnings Release, earnings were $4.2 Bn, or $8.8 Bn when excluding identified items and estimated timing effects.

On valuation, Valero still looks attractive. Its FWD Non-GAAP EV/EBITDA of 6.16x and FWD P/E of 9.33x are below Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66, while its FWD PEG of 0.19x looks much better than HF Sinclair. In other words, the stock is not priced like a premium stock even though it has many of those qualities.

Despite recent successes, Chevron remains appealing compared to Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips when considering valuation alongside portfolio quality, dividend reliability, and disciplined cash returns.

Kodiak is leveraging a tight compression market to achieve higher margins, stronger cash flow, and clear growth by 2026.

This company is rated a strong buy for three main reasons: the Martinez refinery is restarting, the West Coast oil product market is tightening, and the company is significantly cutting costs through its Refinery Business Improvement [RBI] program.

We rate Shell as a strong buy because the company's leaders are making some structural improvements, cutting costs, and giving back a lot of cash to shareholders something that the market has not appreciated.

Summary I’m rating this business a Strong Buy because it’s combining better operating execution (record product yields and near-full utilisation) with a steadily growing logistics platform, which can keep cash returns durable even when the cycle turns. The next 12–18 months have clear catalysts: continued expansions across the logistics and NGL chain toward a large 2027 run-rate EBITDA goal, plus persistent cost and reliability work that should widen margins as market conditi