The alpha Brief: Insights on Quant Investing and the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)

I rate Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PARR) a Buy because I believe the market is undervaluing a high-quality downstream energy company with a unique combination of refining, logistics, retail, and renewable fuels assets. Unlike many independent refiners, Par Pacific has built an integrated platform that generates cash flow across multiple business segments while benefiting from geographically advantaged markets in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies.

I am rating JinkoSolar a Strong Buy because it is the undisputed global leader in solar module shipments, trading at a deeply depressed valuation that prices in permanent earnings impairment rather than a cyclical trough followed by a structural recovery.

This company is strategically positioned in the growing clean energy sector and its has a capability to address electricity demand constraints with its distributed, on-site energy systems that offer reliable, grid-independent power.

ExxonMobil achieved stronger core results in the first quarter of 2026, despite disruptions in the Middle East, demonstrating the business's resilience in challenging conditions. As reported in the 1Q 2026 Earnings Release, earnings were $4.2 Bn, or $8.8 Bn when excluding identified items and estimated timing effects.

On valuation, Valero still looks attractive. Its FWD Non-GAAP EV/EBITDA of 6.16x and FWD P/E of 9.33x are below Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66, while its FWD PEG of 0.19x looks much better than HF Sinclair. In other words, the stock is not priced like a premium stock even though it has many of those qualities.

Despite recent successes, Chevron remains appealing compared to Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips when considering valuation alongside portfolio quality, dividend reliability, and disciplined cash returns.

Kodiak is leveraging a tight compression market to achieve higher margins, stronger cash flow, and clear growth by 2026.

PBF is rated a strong buy for three main reasons: the Martinez refinery is restarting, the West Coast oil product market is tightening, and the company is significantly cutting costs through its Refinery Business Improvement (RBI) program.

We rate Shell as a strong buy because the company's leaders are making some structural improvements, cutting costs, and giving back a lot of cash to shareholders something that the market has not appreciated.

Summary I’m rating this business a Strong Buy because it’s combining better operating execution (record product yields and near-full utilisation) with a steadily growing logistics platform, which can keep cash returns durable even when the cycle turns. The next 12–18 months have clear catalysts: continued expansions across the logistics and NGL chain toward a large 2027 run-rate EBITDA goal, plus persistent cost and reliability work that should widen margins as market conditi