GE Vernova Earnings Proved the Power Thesis but Valuation Still Demands Perfection
Price reference $857.87 | Previous rating Strong Buy | Updated rating Hold | Base target $830
Summary
I downgrade GEV from Strong Buy to Hold. The business is better than the original thesis assumed, but the current multiple already prices in a large share of the operating upside.
GE Vernova reported 3Q FY 2026 revenue of $12.64Bn, up 27%, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 15.4% and backlog reached $197Bn.
The original power-constraint thesis strengthened: Power orders accelerated, Electrification equipment backlog rose 60% Y/Y, and data-center orders exceeded $6Bn year to date.
My base valuation is $830 per share, using $33.40 of 2028 EPS, a 30x multiple, and a 9% discount rate. That implies roughly 3% downside from the October 30 close.
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