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The aBP Weekly: The Jobs Report Finally Cooled. The Bond Market Still Isn't Convinced

Writer: Felix Ouma
Felix Ouma
Oct 3
7 min read

Summary

  • The September jobs report finally showed meaningful cooling in the U.S. labor market. Employers added only 29,000 jobs, unemployment increased to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to 3.0% YoY. July and August payrolls were also revised lower by a combined 60,000 jobs.


  • The jobs report changed the conversation around the Federal Reserve. Markets moved sharply away from expectations for another immediate rate increase, providing relief to equities on Friday after Treasury yields had pressured stocks earlier in the week.


  • The bond market remains less relaxed. The 10 year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level in 24 years, as investors continued weighing inflation, economic growth and the outlook for monetary policy.

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  • AI fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Micron reported record quarterly revenue of $54.23 Bn, with Cloud Memory revenue reaching $16.28 Bn and Core Data Center revenue reaching $18.00 Bn, reinforcing the view that AI demand is broadening beyond GPUs into memory and storage.

Red NOW HIRING sign on a chain-link fence under a bright blue sky.
A "now hiring" sign is displayed outside Taylor Party and Equipment Rentals in Somerville, Massachusetts, U.S., September 1, 2022. Source: Reuters

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