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BridgeBio: The Market Is Pricing One Drug. The Pipeline Tells a Different Story.

Summary

  • I am rating BBIO a STRONG BUY because it offers a rare combination of proven commercial traction . That is, Attruby growing 392% y/y and three additional drugs approaching FDA approval inside the next twelve months. All at a price that reflects only the drug that already exists.


  • Its growth will be driven by Attruby's rising trajectory and three NDA submissions, each with approximately $1 to 2 Bn in projected peak sales. These are expected to launch between late 2026 and mid-2027.


  • At approximately 18x FWD EV/Revenue against 93% forward revenue growth and a 95% Non-GAAP gross margin, BBIO is discounted on a growth adjusted basis than several pre-commercial peers.


  • The primary risks are biotech binary exposure and a leveraged balance sheet carrying approximately $2.5 Bn in total debt. Both partially mitigated by the fact that all three pipeline submissions are post-Phase 3 data [not pre-data], and by a large cash position that management has confirmed is sufficient to fund all launches without additional raises.


Lab scientist in blue PPE examines a microscope in a blue-lit laboratory.
Source:magnific


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