The alpha Brief: Insights on Quant Investing and the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)

The original thesis strengthened as Mt. Holly completed its restart, Grundartangi returned close to full production, and Jamalco’s new turbine came online.

Newmont remains a Strong Buy in my view as the market continues to focus on a temporary 2026 production slowdown while ignoring the company's exceptional cash generation, net-cash balance sheet, and aggressive share repurchase program. With Ahafo North ramping up, major projects advancing, and the stock trading at just 13x forward earnings, investors appear to be valuing Newmont on trough-year results rather than its improving 2027 earnings and production outlook

NVIDIA’s fiscal Q2 2027 revenue rose 106% Y/Y to $96.2Bn, while non-GAAP EPS reached $2.22, beating consensus of $2.09 thus why I am maintaining a strong buy rating.

I am retaining my Strong Buy rating on Phillips 66 following its second-quarter 2026 results. In my previous analysis, I argued that better refining execution, a growing Midstream business and disciplined capital allocation were making Phillips 66 less dependent on favorable refining cycles. Q2 strengthens that thesis because those structural improvements are now meeting an exceptionally supportive refining environment.

Q2 Adjusted Earnings reached $9.8 Bn, Adjusted EBITDA was $20.7 Bn, and CFFO reached $21.4 Bn. Free cash flow was $17.5 Bn, helping net debt fall from $52.6 Bn in Q1 to $41.8 Bn and gearing decline to 18.7%.

Lockheed Martin's stock has largely lagged the broader defense sector in 2026, but the underlying business continues to strengthen. Record backlog levels, accelerating missile-defense demand, and raised full-year guidance suggest investor sentiment remains more pessimistic than the fundamentals warrant. With over $7 billion in projected free cash flow, I believe LMT remains an attractive long-term defense holding

When I last covered Ituran, my thesis was simple: investors were valuing it as a telematics hardware company while overlooking its recurring revenue engine. Since then, subscriber growth has grown, OEM partnerships have expanded, and the company has delivered another set of record financial results. But the market still values Ituran more like a device manufacturer than a subscription based mobility platform. I believe that disconnect continues to create a compelling long ter

Second-quarter revenue increased 92% y/y to $7.8 Bn, while adjusted EBITDA increased 191% to $3.5 Bn. The quarterly net loss narrowed from $1.0 Bn to $541 Mn. More importantly, growth is increasingly diversified across Connectivity, AI and Space.

The biggest question is no longer whether the refining thesis has worked, but how long it can last. Distillate inventories, crack spreads and refinery utilization will be critical indicators as we decide whether to maintain exposure or become more defensive.

I am retaining my Strong Buy rating on PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF) following its second quarter 2026 results. My previous thesis depended heavily on the Martinez refinery returning to full operation, better West Coast refining conditions and measurable savings from the Refinery Business Improvement program. Martinez is now fully operational, refining conditions have strengthened considerably, and the cost program continues to deliver.

I am maintaining my Strong Buy rating on Centerra Gold as strong Q2 results reinforce the company's ability to generate cash, fund growth, and return capital simultaneously. With rising production guidance, a debt-free balance sheet, over $1 Bn of liquidity, and multiple catalysts including Thompson Creek, Goldfield, Kemess, and Mount Milligan, I believe the market continues to undervalue Centerra's long-term growth potential.

I am rating ATI a Strong Buy because the company has successfully transformed itself from a cyclical materials producer into a highly specialized aerospace and defense supplier with record backlog, expanding margins, and growing pricing power. Its exposure to mission critical applications and long term customer relationships provides earnings durability that the market still appears to undervalue.

I am rating this company a Strong Buy due to its combination of hypergrowth revenue, accelerating customer demand, expanding profitability and a rapidly growing AI infrastructure footprint that remains difficult for competitors to replicate.

I am rating SK hynix a Strong Buy because it is the leading beneficiary of the AI memory boom, with dominant positioning in HBM, server DRAM and enterprise SSDs that are becoming increasingly critical to AI infrastructure deployments.

In my previous article, I argued that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) was one of the most misunderstood names in semiconductors and assigned the stock a Strong Buy rating. After seeing Intel's Q2 2026 results, I remain firmly in that camp. In fact, if anything, the latest quarter strengthens my conviction that the market is still underestimating both the pace of Intel's recovery and the scale of opportunity ahead.

Microsoft's growth is increasingly supported by three interconnected engines: Azure and AI infrastructure, enterprise adoption of Copilot and AI agents, and an ecosystem that allows the company to monetize AI across cloud computing, productivity software, development tools, databases, security, and business applications.

I rate KLA Corporation a Strong Buy due to its crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing and its benefit from the growing AI infrastructure. As chip complexity grows, demand for KLA's solutions increases, making it essential to top semiconductor manufacturers.

I rate Argan Inc a Strong Buy because I believe its EPC franchise sits at the center of the accelerating U.S. power infrastructure buildout driven by AI data centers, electrification, manufacturing reshoring, and aging generation replacement. This positioning provides exceptional backlog visibility, strong cash generation, and exposure to one of the most attractive long-term infrastructure themes in the market.

I am rating Oracle Corporation a Strong Buy because I believe its cloud infrastructure, software subscription mix, and rising GenAI demand create durable high-margin annuities with significant upside as enterprises re-platform to OCI and Oracle Apps. This thesis rests on accelerating cloud bookings and attractive forward multiples.

I am rating Vistance Networks Inc a Strong Buy because I believe the company is sitting at the intersection of growing fiber/Wi‑Fi demand and the AI-driven edge upgrade cycle, with a lean balance sheet and backlog that should re-rate multiples.