The alpha Brief: Insights on Quant Investing and the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)

Brinker International delivered a strong start to fiscal 2027, supported by continued revenue growth, improved profitability and earnings that exceeded market expectations.

I value Anthropic at $1.03 trillion before its IPO, but there’s already plenty of success built into that figure. Here’s what I’m assuming about growth, compute costs and profitability, and why I’m waiting for the offer price before deciding whether the shares look attractive.

I maintain a Strong Buy rating at the current price. The operating thesis is stronger, but the original $728.29 entry has lost 46.6%, so the old timing call failed.

Willdan reported Q2 contract revenue of $231.0Mn, net revenue of $117.2Mn, adjusted EBITDA of $33.0Mn, and adjusted EPS of $2.07. Organic net revenue grew 18%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin reached a quarterly record of 28.2%.

Q2 revenue increased 62% year over year to $4.70 Bn and adjusted EPS increased 83% to $2.54, beating consensus by about $300 Mn and $0.23, respectively.

Fiscal Q4 revenue rose 30% year over year to $6.72 Bn and adjusted EPS reached $1.82, beating consensus by about $57 Mn and $0.13, respectively.

I maintain a Strong Buy on Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd since it has reported fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $479.0Mn, up 9.6% sequentially and 114.7% Y/Y. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.20 beat the $1.17 consensus by $0.03.

The original thesis strengthened as Mt. Holly completed its restart, Grundartangi returned close to full production, and Jamalco’s new turbine came online.

Newmont remains a Strong Buy in my view as the market continues to focus on a temporary 2026 production slowdown while ignoring the company's exceptional cash generation, net-cash balance sheet, and aggressive share repurchase program. With Ahafo North ramping up, major projects advancing, and the stock trading at just 13x forward earnings, investors appear to be valuing Newmont on trough-year results rather than its improving 2027 earnings and production outlook

NVIDIA’s fiscal Q2 2027 revenue rose 106% Y/Y to $96.2Bn, while non-GAAP EPS reached $2.22, beating consensus of $2.09 thus why I am maintaining a strong buy rating.

I am retaining my Strong Buy rating on Phillips 66 following its second-quarter 2026 results. In my previous analysis, I argued that better refining execution, a growing Midstream business and disciplined capital allocation were making Phillips 66 less dependent on favorable refining cycles. Q2 strengthens that thesis because those structural improvements are now meeting an exceptionally supportive refining environment.

Q2 Adjusted Earnings reached $9.8 Bn, Adjusted EBITDA was $20.7 Bn, and CFFO reached $21.4 Bn. Free cash flow was $17.5 Bn, helping net debt fall from $52.6 Bn in Q1 to $41.8 Bn and gearing decline to 18.7%.

Lockheed Martin's stock has largely lagged the broader defense sector in 2026, but the underlying business continues to strengthen. Record backlog levels, accelerating missile-defense demand, and raised full-year guidance suggest investor sentiment remains more pessimistic than the fundamentals warrant. With over $7 billion in projected free cash flow, I believe LMT remains an attractive long-term defense holding

When I last covered Ituran, my thesis was simple: investors were valuing it as a telematics hardware company while overlooking its recurring revenue engine. Since then, subscriber growth has grown, OEM partnerships have expanded, and the company has delivered another set of record financial results. But the market still values Ituran more like a device manufacturer than a subscription based mobility platform. I believe that disconnect continues to create a compelling long ter

Second-quarter revenue increased 92% y/y to $7.8 Bn, while adjusted EBITDA increased 191% to $3.5 Bn. The quarterly net loss narrowed from $1.0 Bn to $541 Mn. More importantly, growth is increasingly diversified across Connectivity, AI and Space.

The biggest question is no longer whether the refining thesis has worked, but how long it can last. Distillate inventories, crack spreads and refinery utilization will be critical indicators as we decide whether to maintain exposure or become more defensive.

I am retaining my Strong Buy rating on PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF) following its second quarter 2026 results. My previous thesis depended heavily on the Martinez refinery returning to full operation, better West Coast refining conditions and measurable savings from the Refinery Business Improvement program. Martinez is now fully operational, refining conditions have strengthened considerably, and the cost program continues to deliver.

I am maintaining my Strong Buy rating on Centerra Gold as strong Q2 results reinforce the company's ability to generate cash, fund growth, and return capital simultaneously. With rising production guidance, a debt-free balance sheet, over $1 Bn of liquidity, and multiple catalysts including Thompson Creek, Goldfield, Kemess, and Mount Milligan, I believe the market continues to undervalue Centerra's long-term growth potential.

I am rating ATI a Strong Buy because the company has successfully transformed itself from a cyclical materials producer into a highly specialized aerospace and defense supplier with record backlog, expanding margins, and growing pricing power. Its exposure to mission critical applications and long term customer relationships provides earnings durability that the market still appears to undervalue.

I am rating this company a Strong Buy due to its combination of hypergrowth revenue, accelerating customer demand, expanding profitability and a rapidly growing AI infrastructure footprint that remains difficult for competitors to replicate.