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Newmont: The Market Is Missing A Visible Production Recovery

Summary 

  • I am maintaining a STRONG BUY rating on Newmont because the market remains overly focused on a temporary 2026 production trough while overlooking the company's strong balance sheet, robust free cash flow generation, and accelerating shareholder returns. 


  • I believe future growth will be driven by Ahafo North's ramp-up, the advancement of Tanami Expansion 2 and Cadia Panel Caves, and the longer-term development potential at Red Chris. These projects provide a visible pathway to production growth beyond 2026. 


  • Valuation remains attractive, with Newmont trading at roughly 13.99x 2026 forward non-GAAP EPS and 12.69x 2027 forward EPS despite having the industry's largest reserve base, a net-cash balance sheet, and substantial buyback activity.  

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