Sempra: Texas Grid Demand Strengthens the Thesis, but Not Enough for a Strong Buy
RATING: BUY (downgraded) | TARGET: $98 | PRICE: $81.34 as of October 9, 2026 | UPSIDE: 20.5%
Summary
Second-quarter adjusted EPS rose 30% year over year to $1.16, beating the $1.01 consensus, while $2.997 Bn of revenue was roughly flat and modestly above the $2.98 Bn estimate.
The Texas thesis strengthened: Oncor reported a 298 GW large-load queue, including 44 GW that met stricter Batch Zero criteria and carried more than $2 Bn of collateral.
My base case uses $5.99 of 2028 EPS, an 18.5x future P/E, and a 5.74% discount rate. That produces a present value near $97.90, rounded to a $98 target.
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