The alpha Brief: Market Recap

Last week felt like déjà vu… the kind of whiplash we saw during the DeepSeek selloff earlier in the year. Sharp swings. Sudden sentiment flips. A market that can’t quite make up its mind. Even so, the Henriot view hasn’t changed. Volatility comes in waves, and the important part is how fundamentals behave once the storm calms down. A few of the hardest-hit names have already started clawing back losses, but weeks like this usually have a long tail. Let’s walk through what actually moved markets.

Market Sentiment Flips Again

The S&P 500 spent most of the week under pressure and is now tracking for one of its weakest Novembers since the 2008 financial crisis. We even saw a rare four-day losing streak earlier in the month. Nvidia’s (NVDA) blockbuster earnings briefly sparked a relief rally, but that strength faded almost immediately as indices slid again by Thursday afternoon.

Then Friday hit. Risk came back fast. Sentiment swung the other way just as violently. This push-and-pull has been the tone all month.

At the center of the turbulence was a new round of worry that the AI trade might finally be unwinding. Since late October, nearly $2.4 trillion has been wiped from AI and broader tech names. Add in a delayed jobs report showing strong payrolls but rising unemployment, and the picture gets more complicated.

Rate expectations have been all over the place too. Odds of a December rate cut jumped from 40% to 70% within days as commentary from Fed officials shifted tone. Traders have been reacting to every word.

Sector Moves: Defense Still in the Lead

With volatility spiking, money kept rotating into defensive names. Healthcare continued its steady ascent, which is typical during choppy periods. Tech, unsurprisingly, took the biggest hit a natural reaction after several months of near-vertical performance.

The rally on Friday may spill into next week, but the trend is clear: investors are trying to balance high-quality AI exposure with more defensive ballast.

Looking Ahead

Volatility doesn’t disappear overnight, but sharp reversals like Friday’s often signal that markets are trying to find equilibrium again. We’ll continue tracking how rate expectations evolve, especially as we move into December.

Introducing the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)

We’re also excited to share some news on our side. We’ve started the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP), a concise, research‑driven collection of ideas built for thoughtful investors who want signal without the noise. The goal is simple. We aim to surface well‑researched names for long‑term compounding, with clear theses, entry ranges, risk factors, and realistic holding horizons. It will read like a briefing you can act on, not a doorstop report that gathers dust. We’ll weave it into these Friday recaps so you can follow the thinking in real time, and we’ll keep the tone neutral and disciplined because process beats hot takes over a full cycle.

If you’re looking for solid, research-backed stock ideas with real growth potential, check out the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP). It focuses on companies that fit a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) theme, combining data-driven selection with sound fundamentals using our in-house Quant Models. You can follow every move we make, see the companies we’re tracking, and stay aligned with our strategy.

Written by Kennedy NJAGI

Founder, Head of Quant Research & CIO

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Important Disclaimer

This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities or investment products. The views and opinions expressed are those of Henriot Investment Management Ltd and do not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Investors should conduct their own due diligence or consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Henriot Investment Management Ltd is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, U.S. investment advisor, or investment bank.