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Vistra Corp: The Indispensable Power Behind the AI Trade

Summary 

  • I am rating Vistra Corp a Strong Buy because AI is moving from a chip shortage phase to a power shortage phase. Vistra Corp is the largest independent power producer in the United States, and it sits directly at the center of this structural shift. 


  • Vistra is not a legacy utility playing catch-up. The company has 44,000 megawatts of total capacity making it the second largest nuclear operator in the U.S.. Nuclear is the critical asset and it delivers 24/7 carbon free baseload power that hyperscalers cannot get elsewhere.  


  • The hyperscaler demand signal is not speculative. Vistra has secured industry leading power purchase agreement with Amazon Web Services at its Comanche Peak nuclear facility and nuclear energy, capacity, and uprates with Meta at its various PJM nuclear facilities. 


  • The financials validate the thesis. Vistra reported Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $5,912Mn and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $3,592Mn for 2025. The 2026 guide raises the bar further, to $6.8 Bn to $7.6 Bn in Adjusted EBITDA.  


  • The valuation remains compelling on a growth-adjusted basis. Its FWD Non-GAAP PEG ratio of 0.36 signals that the market is not yet pricing in the full magnitude of its earnings growth.  



Three tall smokestacks on a red-brick industrial building under a clear blue sky, with power lines stretching across the scene.
Source: Vistra Corp final 2025 report

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