The alpha Brief: Insights on Quant Investing and the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)

I am rating Vistra Corp a Strong Buy because AI is moving from a chip shortage phase to a power shortage phase. Vistra Corp is the largest independent power producer in the United States, and it sits directly at the center of this structural shift.

Sempra is becoming one of the clearest utility beneficiaries of the AI-driven electricity buildout in the United States. As AI infrastructure expands, hyperscale data centers are consuming significantly more electricity than traditional cloud infrastructure. This is creating rising demand for transmission networks, grid modernization, and utility investment, particularly in Texas where Sempra’s Oncor business operates.

Sterling is strategically positioned in rapidly expanding sectors particularly data centers, semiconductors, and e‑commerce infrastructure driving outsized revenue growth and long-term demand visibility.

ExxonMobil achieved stronger core results in the first quarter of 2026, despite disruptions in the Middle East, demonstrating the business's resilience in challenging conditions. As reported in the 1Q 2026 Earnings Release, earnings were $4.2 Bn, or $8.8 Bn when excluding identified items and estimated timing effects.

I rate a Microchip Technology a Buy because it is a durable embedded semiconductor compounder with long product lifecycles and high switching costs that provide stability through cycles.

I am rating Silicon motion a strong buy because the company is undergoing a structural shift toward AI centric enterprise controllers and boot drive solutions, driving higher growth, higher ASPs, and more durable margins.

On valuation, Valero still looks attractive. Its FWD Non-GAAP EV/EBITDA of 6.16x and FWD P/E of 9.33x are below Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66, while its FWD PEG of 0.19x looks much better than HF Sinclair. In other words, the stock is not priced like a premium stock even though it has many of those qualities.

I am rating Diodes Incorporated a Strong Buy because the company is entering a margin led earnings inflection driven by a durable mix shift toward higher value automotive, computing, and industrial markets.

Despite recent successes, Chevron remains appealing compared to Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips when considering valuation alongside portfolio quality, dividend reliability, and disciplined cash returns.

I rate Western Digital Corporation a Strong Buy because it is benefiting from a sharp acceleration in data creation tied to AI and cloud, which is driving sustained demand for high-capacity infrastructure.

I am rating Penguin Solutions a Strong Buy because the company is at a structural inflection point monetizing AI inference infrastructure where memory performance is the primary bottleneck.

Movado Group: A Cash‑Rich Brand Platform at a Discounted Valuation

Valuation is no longer distressed, but it still looks reasonable relative to peers when set against Aura's growth profile, cash generation, and unusually low FWD PEG

I am rating Astec Industies a BUY because the company has entered a structural margin‑expansion phase that is supported by backlog visibility, aftermarket mix shift, and operating leverage rather than cyclical recovery alone.

I rate Poet Technologies Inc (POET) a strong buy as it is positioned at the intersection of AI infrastructure and silicon photonics, addressing a critical data center bottleneck as electrical interconnects struggle to scale with next generation AI workloads.

I rate Astera Labs a Strong Buy due to its leadership in next gen AI data center connectivity and first mover advantages in PCIe, CXL and fabric scale interconnect solutions.

I’m rating Dana a STRONG BUY because the company has already completed a structural reset, simplifying its portfolio, embedding cost savings, and materially improving balance‑sheet flexibility—while the market continues to price it on legacy assumptions

I rate PG&E Corporation(PCG) a Buy because the company is transitioning from a legacy restructuring story into a regulated utility with improving balance‑sheet strength, restored regulatory credibility and visible earnings growth.

I rate NVIDIA a Strong Buy. NVDA is the key platform for global AI infrastructure, with unmatched control over compute, networking, systems and software, making it the default architecture for large scale AI workloads.

Kodiak is leveraging a tight compression market to achieve higher margins, stronger cash flow, and clear growth by 2026.