The alpha Brief: Insights on Quant Investing and the alpha Brief Portfolio (aBP)

For much of this year, investors have focused on artificial intelligence, interest rates, and corporate earnings. This week, however, another market force demanded attention: oil. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time in months before prices eased on Friday. Although the week ended with Brent below that level, the sharp rally reminded investors how quickly geopolitical events can reshape financial marke

I am rating Merck a BUY because Merck's pipeline is not a future promise. It is actively delivering ahead of schedule, with the FDA approving KEYTRUDA plus Padcev for all muscle invasive bladder cancer patients on July 10, 2026, five weeks ahead of the original target date. And Lipfendra (enlicitide) on July 16 as the world's first oral PCSK9 inhibitor, while three additional FDA decisions remain on the calendar for September and October 2026.

I am rating Coherent Corp a Strong Buy because I believe its laser and photonics franchise sits at the center of AI-driven semicapex and datacenter optical upgrades. This gives it durable pricing power, a growing backlog and attractive secular margins.

I am rating Fabrinet a Buy because I believe its precision optical-packaging moat and customer intimacy position it to capture disproportionate share of the AI / hyperscaler optics buildout. This is backed by a deep backlog and attractive operating leverage [Market Cap $18.40Bn; P/E 37.19x).

Growth will be driven by the continued recovery in commercial aerospace, increasing demand for lightweight automotive materials, resilient packaging demand, and long-term sustainability trends that favor recyclable aluminum. Management also raised its full-year 2026 guidance following a strong first quarter.

Nexa is entering a favorable period of earnings growth supported by stronger metal prices, improving operational performance, record production at its Aripuanã mine, and long-term projects that will extend mine life and increase cash flow. Management also expects free cash flow to strengthen throughout the remainder of 2026 as first-quarter seasonal working capital effects reverse.

I am rating SOFI a BUY because I believe that ten consecutive profitable quarters, 41% revenue growth, and a PEG ratio of 0.81 collectively describe a business that the market is materially underpricing relative to both its growth rate and its actual financial delivery.

After leading global markets for much of 2026, AI stocks experienced one of their most notable pullbacks this week. Investors took profits across several of the market's biggest winners as they prepared for another earnings season that will test whether today's premium valuations remain justified.

I am rating BBIO a BUY because it offers a rare combination of proven commercial traction . That is, Attruby growing 392% y/y and three additional drugs approaching FDA approval inside the next twelve months. All at a price that reflects only the drug that already exists.

I am rating Ciena Corporation (NYSE: CIEN) a Strong Buy because I see durable demand from hyperscalers and the AI-driven capacity cycle, a sticky services/backlog mix and a valuation gap versus peers that the market hasn’t priced yet.

I am rating Kratos a BUY because its specific programs are named in a confirmed $156 Bn government spending bill. This makes a contact level confirmation and not a macro defense bet.

I maintain a Strong Buy on Micron Technology due to accelerating AI memory demand. Micron's 3Q FY 2026 results indicate extreme and sustained supply tightness in the industry. High-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced DRAM, and data center NAND are supply constrained, with demand far exceeding production capacity and visibility extending years ahead.

I am rating TSMC a STRONG BUY because it is the indispensable manufacturing backbone of the global AI ecosystem, with unmatched leadership in advanced semiconductor production and sustained demand for leading-edge technologies.

Capnote and Henriot Investment Management today announced a strategic collaboration aimed at expanding access to safe financial artificial intelligence (AI), market intelligence, and modern data infrastructure across East Africa.

I rate Marvell Technology a Strong Buy because the company has established itself as one of the most important enablers of AI infrastructure. Its leadership across high-speed networking, custom AI silicon, optical interconnect, and data-center connectivity positions it to benefit from the rapid expansion of hyperscale AI deployments.

This week, investors paid closer attention to the broader AI supply chain after several infrastructure companies reaffirmed strong demand for networking, optical interconnect, and custom silicon solutions. Rather than slowing, hyperscale AI investment continues expanding as cloud providers race to build larger AI clusters capable of supporting increasingly complex workloads.

I believe Himax is a high‑leverage play on AI-driven vision and AR microdisplays. Conservative modeling of incremental CIS and microdisplay revenue implies materially higher EBITDA over 12–24 months, warranting a STRONG BUY.

Q2 2026 pushed us deeper into one of the biggest questions in markets today; AI.

I rate Lattice Semiconductor a Strong Buy because the company has established itself as the leading provider of low-power field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) for AI edge computing, communications, and industrial applications. Strong design-win momentum, expanding AI adoption, and a growing software ecosystem position the company for sustained long-term growth.

I am rating Arm Holdings PLC a Strong Buy because I believe its IP-first royalty model sits at the center of the AI compute stack. This gives durable margins, high operating leverage, and massive addressable upside as AI workloads proliferate.